參考答案
First, I baseline error using MAPE and bias by hierarchy—SKU, family, region—to pinpoint variability drivers. For stable items, I optimize exponential smoothing parameters (Holt-Winters); for promotional or new products, I shift to gradient boosting models in Python's XGBoost, feeding in price, marketing spend, and competitor activity. Intermittent demand items get a Croston or SBA approach. I ensemble the models, weighted by out-of-sample accuracy, and deploy via Azure ML for auto-retraining. In a CPG project, this lifted aggregate forecast accuracy to 82% within six months, resulting in a 20% reduction in stockouts. I complement algorithms with a monthly demand consensus meeting, so human intelligence—such as sales insights and macroeconomic shifts—adjusts the statistical baseline before it feeds into supply planning.